2019年1月3日 09:46
来源:香港奇点财经Singularity Financial

In November 2018, the US Commerce Department released a list of technologies, including artificial intelligence, that are under consideration for new export rules because of their importance to national security.


The export controls are being considered as the United States and China engage in a trade war. The Trump administration has been critical of the way China negotiates deals with American companies, often requiring the transfer of technology to Chinese partners as the cost of doing business in the country. And federal officials are making an aggressive argument that China has stolen American technology through hacking and industrial espionage.


AI gets political


An article released by New York Times on January 1, 2019, pointed out that, curbing on A.I. exports may eventually have Silicon Valley lose its edge. It is difficult to put a 「made in America」 label on artificial intelligence. Research on the technology is often done collaboratively by scientists and engineers all over the world.


Artificial intelligence, which involves computer systems performing tasks that simulate human intelligence, is expected to turn into a high-stakes political issue for China, as unresolved trade tensions prompt the US to tighten controls over the export of chips and other key technologies to the mainland.


Jeffrey Ding, China lead for the Governance of AI Programme at University of Oxford, said the export controls may push Beijing to 「ramp up efforts at promoting indigenous innovation, which may come back to bite American firms hoping to maintain access to the Chinese market」.

牛津大學人工智能項目治理中國負責人Jeffrey Ding表示,「出口管制可能會促使北京『加大推動自主創新的力度』,這樣一來,那些希望進入中國市場的美國公司將失去競爭優勢。」

China has identified 17 key areas for AI development in China, among them smart vehicles, intelligent service robots, intelligent drones, neural network chips, and intelligent manufacturing, for examples; as well as bringing the value of AI to all levels throughout the supply chain.


In the near-term future, China』s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) hopes to thrive in smart chips for autonomous driving, intelligent vehicle algorithms, and vehicle communications. Over the coming three years, Beijing expects to increase in the size of the AI industry by ten times.


China has a competitive AI game plan


The Boston Consulting Group』s study Mind the (AI) Gap: Leadership Makes the Difference published earlier December 2018 provides insights into China』s emerging global leadership of AI. A copy of the study can be downloaded here. BCG』s study focuses on the key drivers of success in AI implementations and is based on a global survey of over 2,700 managers in seven countries.

根據波士頓咨詢集團(BCG)在2018年12月的研究《關註(AI)差距:管理者引發的不同》提供有關中國在新興市場全球人工智能領導力的見解。該研究的副本可以在這裡下載。 BCG的重點研究人工智能能夠得以實施的關鍵驅動因素,並對對7個國家2,700多名管理人員進行全球調查。

The study found that there is a strong connection between bold, disruption-friendly management styles including actively putting AI high on the agenda, encouraging rapid development and piloting, and fostering cross-functional, agile R&D, all leading to AI industry leadership. Chinese organizations are beginning to dominate AI due to these factors combined with their shorter innovation cycles than their peer organizations. BCG found that structural improvements at the national level do play an important role in laying the foundations for AI growth—investments in data infrastructure, in research hubs and networks, and higher education for IT and data-related fields.

該研究發現,積極地將AI列入議程,鼓勵快速開發和試點,促進跨職能,更為靈敏的研發,這類大膽,突破性管理都能夠幫助公司在AI行業取得領導地位。這些因素再加上中國公司的創新周期比同行業需要的時間短,中國在人工智能行業裡快速成長,後來居上。 BCG還發現,在全國範圍進行結構性改進確實能夠推動人工智能曡代更新,高速發展,尤其是對基礎設施,研究中心,網路以及IT和數據相關領域的高等教育的投資為AI發展奠定了堅實基礎。

In fact, global GDP is set to increase by 14 percent because of AI, according to PwC. The tech’s deployment in the decade ahead will add $15.7 trillion to global GDP, with China predicted to take $7 trillion and North America $3.7 trillion, according to the multinational company. “Data is the new oil, so China is the new Saudi Arabia,” Kai-Fu Lee, venture capitalist and author of “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order,” told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

據普華永道稱,由於人工智能,全球GDP將增加14%。據跨國公司稱,該技術在未來十年的部署將為全球GDP增加15.7萬億美元,中國預計7萬億美元,北美3.7萬億美元。 「數據是新的石油,所以中國是新的沙特阿拉伯,」風投資本家,《AI Superpower:中國,硅穀和新世界秩序》的作者李開複表示。

“If you measure by research — basic research papers published, excellence of research — U.S. is and will be ahead for the next decade,” he said. “But if you measure by value created, how much market capitalization, how many users, how much revenue, China probably is already ahead.” Lee said AI could replace 40 to 50 percent of all jobs in the U.S. in the next 15 years.

「如果你通過研究來衡量 – 發表的基礎研究論文的篇數,卓越的研究成果 – 美國將在未來十年內取得進展,」他說。 「但如果按照創造的價值衡量,市場資本化程度,用戶數量,收入多少,中國可能已經領先。」


The steps to achieve global dominance reflect the amount of funding destined to technology and AI firms in China. Last year, 48 percent of total global funding of AI startups globally came from China, compared to 38 percent funded by the US, and 13 per cent by the rest of the world.


China will soon overtake the US in developing and deploying AI


Lee Kai-fu, Google』s former China head who now manages about US$2 billion in investments as chairman and chief executive of the technology-focused venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures, acknowledges that China is playing catch-up to the US but thinks the balance is tilting due to the country』s practical application of AI and huge pools of data.

穀歌前中國負責人李開複現在管理著約20億美元的投資,擔任以技術為重點的風險投資公司Sinovation Ventures的董事長兼首席執行官,他承認中國正在追趕美國,但認為現在的平衡已經由於該國實際應用人工智能和龐大的數據庫而發生傾斜。

「I believe that China will soon match or even overtake the US in developing and deploying AI,」 he writes in his new book, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order ,arguing that China』s entrepreneurs are using AI to solve real-world problems just like entrepreneurs in the 19th century applied the invention of electricity to practical concerns such as cooking, lighting and the powering of industrial equipment.

「我相信中國很快會在開發和部署人工智能方面與美國相匹敵甚至超過美國,」他在新書《AI Superpowers:中國,硅穀和新世界秩序》中寫道,中國的企業家正在使用人工智能來解決實際問題。世界問題就像19世紀的企業家將電力發明應用於烹飪,照明和工業設備供電等實際問題。

According to Lee, this transition towards implementation helps China avoid its weak point in 「outside the box」 approaches to research and a lack of top-tier researchers, and leverage its most significant strength – 「scrappy entrepreneurs with sharp instincts」 for building robust businesses.

李開複表示,這種將技術落地的轉變有助於中國避免 「開箱即用」和缺乏頂級研究人員方面的弱點,並利用其最重要的力量 – 「富有創業精神的鬥志旺盛的企業家」來建立穩健的企業。

According to China AI Development 2018 report, China had 18,232 AI technology research talents, accounting for 8.9 percent of the world』s total, US accounting for 13.9 percent. Currently, China is harnessing the potential of digital technologies to continue its progress on the path of economic development.



Many Chinese businesses are recognizing the need to invest their money and expertise in innovation hubs or equivalents to drive leading-edge products and services. Susana Tsui, Group CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, China, says, 「These investments will help China to move further up the value chain into more knowledge-based activity, while also increasing the spread of digital services and products across the economy.」


Dentsu Aegis Network中國集團首席執行官Susana Tsui表示,「這些投資將幫助中國進一步向價值鏈上移動更多知識型活動,同時也增加數字服務和產品在整個經濟中的傳播。」

「I think moving forward into the future, we are going to see more industry-specific or vertical-specific AI, and AI-specific chipsets dedicated for specific use cases. At the moment, the industry as a whole is working on creating powerful general purpose AI frameworks and hardware. Once all the groundwork has been laid out, we will see more targeted AI applications which will lead to industrial wide adoption,」 Su says.